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Good evening ladies and gentlemen. This is some late forecast for Eurobasket 2017 quarter final Slovenia-Latvia game.
With wasting no time here I notice that I gave 55% Slovenia to win here, after odds dropped on Latvia, I see some value here as my expected value ratio is now over 1.20.
First of all I been talking a lot about Latvia and to add more we are still not sure about their capabilities here. Basically I see more % probability to crash on Latvia side than on Slovenia. By meaning of crash I give Lithuania and Finland example - teams who been good so far, had potential and had played the worst game in most importang stage of championship. Why to crash?
They had short preparation, and basically only home games, while they came to champ and played terribly-chaotic with no plays vs poor playing Serbia (lost by 10), then had two wins vs. low's - Belgium and Britain, the last one wasn't that easy, Latvia was leading about 25 and then in late 4th it was only 5 point game and lucky there was no time, cuz they seemed really lost. Match vs. Russia was only game Latvia had good opponent and good game this champ, they showed some real strength in 2nd half, but Russia was after 3w in a row. Then vs. Turkey they been struggling that at the one moment Bagatskis even tried Skele from bench who entered game only 4th. Lastly Montanegro was a good piece to be eatten with 15/25 (3pt) that doesn't happen every night, and has less probability to happen today. This team is three point shooting team.
On another side we have Slovenians without any single lose with winning experience against such teams like Poland (they been really good in 4 games of the champ and crashed in last one vs. Greece), Finland, Greece and France. Slovenia had experience to play until last minutes vs. Finland - won, they did comeback vs. Greece, they easily destroyed France they are on the roll during this champ. They are stable team, with maybe shorter bench, but effective starting 5 and Muric Blazic to cover that is enough for 1 important game, more experienced coach, more hungry and ready to revenge after 2015's eightfinal's. And this is the last Eurobasket for 31 years old Dragic to win medal, as another one is in 4 years. Dirk got it when he was 27 with underdogs so this is now or never for the Slovenians and Dragic whose been terrific during the most important games in this champ for Slovenia.
I expect them coming up strong on defence end of floor while stoping Latvia sharpshooter's from distance.
Options for this game are: under 164, is Slovenia ML (that I gave 55%) and the best option is Dragic to score over 21.5 @ bettopsport and betsafe.
Pick: Slovenia -1.00 (AH) @ 2.16 Pinnacle (by: surrealite)
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